By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports are expected to have risen for a 12th straight month in September, but with the growth momentum slowing further, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy are forecast to have risen 6.5% in September from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in the survey conducted Sept. 23-27.
That would mark the slowest growth rate in three months. In August, the rate fell to 11.2% from 13.5% the previous month.
Exports likely have entered a slowing cycle, analysts said. In September, there were also unfavourable calendar effects from a longer break for the Chuseok lunar thanksgiving holiday.
“The slowdown in export growth is expected to become clearer going forward due to a slowing global manufacturing cycle and high comparison bases,” said Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities.
South Korea is the first major exporting economy to report monthly trade figures each month, providing an early glimpse into the state of global demand.
Its exports have been growing since October 2023, led by semiconductor shipments, mostly to the United States, on demand related to artificial intelligence.
“But, the growth in memory chip exports is weakening, while there is no other product growing strongly enough to offset that,” said An Ki-tae, an economist at NH Investment Securities.
“China’s economy is remaining sluggish, and there is a high possibility of the U.S. economy gradually slowing as well,” said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities.
The poll also forecast a rise of 3.0% for imports, weaker than a 6.0% gain in the previous month.
The country’s trade balance is expected to post a surplus for a 16th straight month. The median estimate in the survey was $5.79 billion for September, compared with $3.77 billion in August.
South Korea is scheduled to report trade figures for September on Tuesday, Oct. 1 at 9 a.m. KST (0000 GMT).
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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