The championship of the first-ever 4 Nations Face-Off will come down to a United States-Canada rematch on Thursday night in Boston.
The highly anticipated final is expected to draw huge television ratings, and sportsbooks are expecting to see heavy action on the game as well. The first meeting between the teams — a 3-1 win by the U.S. — was already the most-bet hockey game of the year at BetMGM, where four of the six most-bet have come from this tournament.
“We expect the USA-Canada final to be the most bet hockey game of the year,” senior trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The U.S. is a 1.5-goal favorite at the sportsbook, where the Americans have been backed by 69 percent of all spread-line bets and 66 percent of the money. However, the public has been nearly split on the moneyline, which is -110 for both teams, with the U.S. drawing 52 percent of the money.
“Canada winning would be a good outcome for the sportsbook,” Cipollini said.
The total goals scored line of 5.5 has seen the Over backed by 70 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money.
PROP PICKS
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 1st Period (-102 at BetMGM): This has been the most-bet prop at the book. The first meeting featured only four total goals, but Canada’s first three games have averaged 6.3 goals.
Connor McDavid Anytime Goalscorer (+210): McDavid has been the most popular play to find the back of the net at some point Thursday night. The Edmonton Oilers captain’s breakaway goal was the main highlight for Canada during Saturday night’s loss in round-robin play in Montreal.
INJURY REPORT
Charlie McAvoy is out for the U.S. with a shoulder infection and Quinn Hughes is likely to be, also.
The Vancouver Canucks captain — sidelined with an oblique injury since Jan. 31 — practiced for the second straight day on Wednesday in Vancouver, but he will not join Team USA in Boston for the 4 Nations Face-Off final against Canada.
Hughes — one of six players initially named to the U.S. side in June — was held out of the Canucks’ final four games before the tournament and was eventually replaced by Ottawa Senators defenseman Jake Sanderson. With six defenders still available to play on Thursday night, Hughes would be ineligible unless another blue-liner is injured.
“The rules are the rules. I can’t play unless anyone else gets injured, and I obviously don’t want to see anyone get injured,” Hughes said on Tuesday. “It’s been fun to watch. Hard for me to watch. I’m close with a lot of those USA guys and proud of how they’ve been playing. And the six (defensemen) that have been there, of course, I want them to play. They’ve gotten us to the point where we’re in a championship game now, and those guys also deserve to play.
“But in saying that, it’s obviously been hard for me. I’m a competitor, and I feel like I want to play and need to be there.”
McAvoy, American captain Auston Matthews and the forward duo of brothers Brady and Matthew Tkachuk sat out Monday’s 2-1 loss to Sweden. U.S. coach Mike Sullivan expects all but McAvoy to play, including Brady Tkachuk, who missed Wednesday’s practice.
Replacing McAvoy’s ability — especially after a strong physical performance against Canada — will be challenging.
“He’s a guy that brought it,” U.S. goalie Connor Hellebuyck said.
THE NEWS
Regardless of how any lineup decisions shake out, the challenge will remain the same.
“Don’t give ’em time and space. Stay above McDavid and (Nathan) MacKinnon. Don’t let them gain speed,” U.S. defenseman Jaccob Slavin said. “That’s what (defensemen) love to do, right? Play against the best guys in the world and try to shut them down.”
Canada’s roster situation is more settled as defenseman Cale Makar returned from an illness for the final round-robin game against Finland. After missing the first U.S. matchup, the three-time All-Star and former Norris Trophy winner looks forward to getting his crack at a winner-take-all game in best-on-best play.
“Obviously, it’s going to be a lot of fun,” Makar said. “Big rivalry game. Excited to be out there with the group and battle hard. … The passion runs deep for both sides.
“I know both teams are going to be really excited.”
Canada entered the tournament with significant big-game experience, including 15 of the 28 total Stanley Cup-winning players across the four rosters. Captain Sidney Crosby has three NHL championships with the Pittsburgh Penguins as well as two Olympic gold medals with Team Canada.
While Bruins captain Brad Marchand looks to help Canada in his home NHL building, teammates like the Florida Panthers’ Sam Reinhart have played plenty of games at TD Garden as an opponent. Thursday is just another Game 7 type of assignment.
“Sometimes it’s fun going into the fire on the road a little bit,” Reinhart said. “It’s a situation you want to be in, you have to earn to be in.”
As for Marchand, the 36-year-old is serving as more of a role player alongside the likes of Crosby, McDavid and MacKinnon. However, coach Jon Cooper had nothing but praise for his contributions to the Canadian national team.
“I can’t say enough about what he’s done not only on the ice, but off the ice, galvanizing this group, especially being in his home city here for a few days,” Cooper said.
“His heart is the shape of a maple leaf, and it’s awesome to be around him,” he added earlier this week.
THEY SAID IT
–“It’s been really cool for three or four days to see the whole world following this sport. We’ve built for this moment. … Now we’re here, and they know what they have to do to finish it off.” –Cooper
–“It was a very competitive game the first game, and I would anticipate the next one will be every bit as competitive, if not more. It’s a great celebration of hockey. There are some generational talents on both sides. … I feel like I’ve got the best seat in the house behind the bench.” –Sullivan
PREDICTION
The final between bitter rivals is a fitting ending to what has been a smashing success for hockey with the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off. The Canadian forward group is uber-talented and the likely absence of Hughes is a significant factor for the strong American defense that has allowed only four goals through three games. –Canada 3, United States 2
–Field Level Media
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