By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Aug 31 (Reuters) – Share markets slipped in Asia on Monday as fresh fighting broke out between the U.S. and Iran, lifting oil prices, while bond yields stayed painfully elevated after investors narrowed the odds on a U.S. rate hike.
Brent futures climbed 2.7% to $90.51 a barrel after U.S. forces struck two of Iran’s launchers on its island of Larak on Sunday. In response, Iran attacked U.S. forces stationed in Jordan and claimed to have hit a tanker moving through the strait.
President Donald Trump later posted that Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil terminal, was being “blown to smithereens,” though there was no confirmation of this from the military.
The resulting risk to inflation kept bond markets on edge after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised on Friday the central bank had work to do to control inflation.
Markets reacted by lifting the probability of a September rate increase to 57%, shoving short-term Treasury yields sharply higher and flattening the curve.
“We continue to expect that a hike won’t come until December, though agree that the September meeting is live,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan.
“Moreover, regardless of the exact timing of hikes, Warsh’s speech suggested a chair more willing to translate his concern about inflation into a policy tightening.”
Barclays, for one, now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in both September and December.
Key to the chance of an early hike will be the outcome of Friday’s August payrolls report and consumer price data due on September 11.
Analysts are forecasting a bounce of 58,000 in jobs, following July’s shock drop of 23,000, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. It would probably need a much weaker outcome to greatly lessen the risk of a September rate move.
The inflation threat is expected to spur New Zealand’s central bank to hike rates for a second straight meeting on Wednesday, while the Bank of Canada is seen on hold, given the damage a trade war with the U.S. could do to the economy.
Higher yields combined with geopolitical stress to push Japan’s Nikkei down 0.4%, while South Korean stocks fell 0.1%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6%.
Chinese blue chips eased 0.4%, with property developers under pressure after Beijing announced regulatory changes. A survey also showed the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) picked up to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, though services remained subdued.
In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures dropped 0.3%, while DAX futures eased 0.2%. On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures dipped 0.2% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.1%.
DOLLAR BACK AROUND 160 YEN
Inflation and interest rates will be high on the menu when G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday.
In an interview with Reuters on Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he planned to meet the head of the Bank of Japan amid speculation that it, too, will raise interest rates in September.
Analysts argue a series of hikes is needed to shore up the yen, which again slid past 160.00 per dollar on Friday.
Asked about the yen, Bessent said the move was “pretty well contained,” suggesting the slide was not disorderly enough to trigger a repeat of joint Japan-U.S. intervention.
The dollar was 0.1% lower at 159.78 yen, still some way from the July top of 163.99. Japanese bonds followed Friday’s selloff in Treasuries as 10-year yields again hit their highest since 1996.
Two-year Treasury yields held at 4.34%, after jumping almost 12 basis points on Friday. Yields on 30-year bonds were more contained at 5.2080%, with investors taking some comfort from Warsh’s emphasis on fighting inflation.
The euro was a shade firmer at $1.1590, having slipped 0.6% on Friday after Warsh’s speech.
Data on EU inflation due this week is expected to cement market pricing for another hike from the European Central Bank when it meets on September 10.
In commodity markets, U.S. crude rose 2.6% to $85.57 a barrel. Gold lost 0.6% to $4,425 an ounce, having shed 3.2% on Friday as yields spiked. [GOL/]
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Thomas Derpinghaus)
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