By Brad Brooks
Oct 8 (Reuters) – Hurricane Isaias strengthened on Thursday as it barreled toward the US Gulf Coast, prompting mandatory evacuations in parts of Florida and emergency declarations in Alabama as forecasters warned of life-threatening storm surges, tornadoes and flooding.
Isaias has already severely disrupted oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, forcing energy companies to evacuate offshore platforms and shut down operations.
The first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season was packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph) early on Thursday, the US National Hurricane Center said. Isaias was forecast to strengthen to near Category 3 intensity, with sustained winds reaching 110 mph (175 kph) on Friday before reaching the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
“We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” NHC director Michael Brennan said in a Thursday morning briefing. “Today is the day to prepare and get ready.”
Isaias nearly tied the record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane with one that hit on October 8, 1905. The strong El Nino weather pattern this year has suppressed Atlantic hurricane development by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts the formation of strengthening tropical storms.
The hurricane was moving east-northeast at 10 mph (17 kph), about 355 miles (570 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River at 1 p.m. US Central time, the NHC said.
IMPACTS ON OIL, GAS
The Marine Minerals Administration, which monitors offshore US oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico, said on Thursday that personnel have been evacuated from 121 production platforms and five non-dynamically positioned rigs ahead of the storm.
About 63% of current oil production in the Gulf, or 1.3 million barrels of oil a day, has been shut in, the agency said, citing operator reports. Just over 1.1 billion cubic feet a day of natural gas production has also been shut in, or about 57% of total output from the region.
On Wednesday, 25% of oil production and 16% of natural gas output had been shut in.
About 9 million barrels of oil production could be lost across the Gulf through the duration of the storm, a marked increase from the 7.1 million barrels impacted by Tropical Storm Bertha in July, according to a model forecast from consulting firm Earth Science Associates.
The companies with the most exposure to the storm include BP, Chevron, ENI, Murphy Oil and Shell, among others, according to the Earth Science model.
WARNINGS, STORM SURGE
Hurricane warnings stretched from coastal Mississippi through Alabama to the Florida panhandle, while tropical-storm and storm-surge warnings extended into southeastern Louisiana, the NHC said.
Forecasters warned that storm surges could reach 5 to 7 feet (1.5 to 2.1 meters) above sea level in the hardest-hit coastal areas, with rainfall of 3 to 7 inches (8 to 18 cm) and isolated totals of 15 inches (38 cm).
The hurricane was forecast to weaken somewhat as it approached land. Increasing vertical wind shear, which can disrupt a hurricane’s circulation, was expected to limit its strength near landfall, though forecasters warned it would remain dangerous.
EVACUATIONS ORDERED
In Florida, officials ordered mandatory evacuations beginning at noon local time on Thursday for coastal areas of Okaloosa County.
The county urged tourists to leave the area and announced plans to close three airports Thursday evening. Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 25 Florida counties earlier in the week.
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency covering 40 counties, while officials on Dauphin Island issued an evacuation notice for the western portion of the barrier island beginning Thursday evening.
Baldwin County, Alabama, encouraged residents of low-lying coastal areas to evacuate voluntarily and prepared emergency shelters.
In Mississippi, Jackson County and the city of Gautier declared local emergencies as coastal communities prepared for flooding and power outages.
(Reporting by Brad Brooks in Colorado; Additional reporting by Nathan Crooks in Houston; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
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