Nov 4 (Reuters) – The global oil market has moved back into surplus after months of disruption caused by US-Israeli war with Iran, JPMorgan said in a note on Wednesday, while HSBC raised its forecasts for Saudi Aramco crude oil production.
• JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average of 1.3 million bpd
• The bank said inventories and trade flows both indicated that excess barrels are returning to the market, with global crude imports rising to 44.9 million bpd in October, up 1.3 million bpd from a year earlier
• Middle East oil exports have recovered to about 20.7 million bpd from 9.8 million in March, though volumes remained lower than levels before the Iran began at the end of February
• Rising output elsewhere has also contributed
• The bank estimates that Latin America alone has supplied about 1.5 million bpd more crude than a year ago, led by Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina
• The bank said global demand had fallen by an estimated 3.3 million bpd since the start of the conflict, as high fuel prices and supply disruptions curbed consumption
• HSBC raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Saudi Aramco crude production forecast to 8.3 million bpd from 6.3 million, citing faster-than-expected export recovery
• The bank raised its 2027 production forecast to 9.8 million bpd from 8.8 million and said it expects output to return to about 10 million bpd by mid-2027
• HSBC said October Saudi crude exports recovered to about 7 million bpd, near pre-conflict levels
• It said recovering Middle East crude exports suggested supply disruptions from the conflict have eased
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Vedika Thorat in Bengaluru, Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara Lewis)
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